First Notebook Page

1-HOV.jpg

Big Change

Okay.   I started googling Well Hit Average, only to find out Inside Edge offers it (for 25 dollars a year).  Since I’m not going to pay money when I can find other stats for free, I came up with an alternative!
BABIP!  Batting Average on Balls In Play.  What is this?  A player’s luck.  And thanks to Hard Ball Times’s BABIP Calculator for any MLB player between 2004-2008, I have a great alternative.  Thank you, HBT.  I owe ya. 
Now, the best part is, they include a “luck factor”.  For example, Gary Matthews Jr.circa 2008 was an incredibly unlucky guy.  Although, that didn’t change the fact that he really sucked anyway, according to the stats.  So whatever. 
Right now, my head is spinning.  I need to figure out a way to incorporate xBABIP (expected BABIP) and/or BABIP into this equation.  Help, please?
-Sun-Ui

Notebook 1 (HEP?)

Hey, this is Sun-Ui.  I’ve been working on the outline of my HOV formula, and on HEV.  What’s HEP, you ask?  Glad you asked. (I feel stupid.  Pretend I never wrote that.)

HEP.  Hitting Effective Percentage.  It’s my “average” of OBP and OPS. 
Now, OPS is affected by power, which differs from player to player.  I need this to be definitive.  If I just leave the stat alone, I could value players like Pujols more than say, Mauer.  They’re both outstanding players, but Pujols is a power hitter and Mauer is more contact.  So, I need to weight OBP over OPS, like this.
{(2*OBP)+OPS}/3.  Bear with the math, trust me.
Everyone knows how to average, right?  Add the two numbers and divide by two.  What I’m doing here is “averaging” OBP and OPS, except I’m making OBP more important by averaging OBP, OBP, and OPS instead of just OBP and OPS.  Follow me?  How about this example.

In 2004, Pujols put up a line of .331/.415/.657/1.072.  Mauer had a line of .328/.413/.451/.864 in 2008.  Can you see what would happen if we averaged OBP and OPS (2nd and 4th numbers)?  Pujols’s numbers would eclipse Mauer’s because of Pujols’s OPS.  I need to make OPS less important in the equation.    But I need to make it still important, because Pujols’s HEP needs to be better that Mauer’s because he had the better season.  I’ll just average them and then I’ll do the weighted average.

Weighted Average:
Pujols:  .634
Mauer: .563

Average:
Pujols: .744
Mauer: .639

Can you see the difference?  Pujols’s weighted average is just .071 more than Mauer’s, while Pujols’s average is .105.  (Incidentally, the difference between their SLG is .106). 

But the problem is, OBP is not twice as important as OPS.  So, I need the proper ratio.  Of course, there’s no way to find out the exact ratio.  Anyone have any ideas? 

And this is my rough draft of the HOV formula.

(4*HEV+3*WHA+2*R+HR+SB)/(1000-AVGAB)

And my explanation, starting with the top half of the equation:
My most important stats for hitters, in order, were HEV, Well Hit Average, or WHA, Runs, HR, and SB.  I can’t add them together, because SB is not as important as WHA.  So, I weighted them again.  I multiplied HEV by 4, WHA by 3, R by 2, and HR and SB by 1, so in the end the hitter’s HEV would be most important, WHA second, and so on.
The bottom half deals with durability.  A player like Drew (who is often injured) is less valuable compared to ’06 Miguel Tejada because of durability.  So, I’ll divide the equation by 1000-AB.  But because of the occasional outlier (Ellsbury 2010) I’ll average his whole career’s AB record, starting from his rookie season.  I have half a mind to move the stat to the top half and divide the whole thing by 1000 instead, like this.

(4*HEV+3*WHA+2*R+HR+SB+AVGAB)/1000.
 
I’ll run Pujols’s 2004 stats through each of these.  Next entry, though.
-Sun-Ui

Explanation

Hey guys, this is Sun-Ui from TGAA.  Last night, I was struck with an inspiration after reading Sam Walker’s “Fantasyland”.  I’ve decided to win my next fantasy league.  And by win, I mean absolutely crush.  And to do that, I can’t go with the regular WAR and VORP and XKRODE or whatever.  I gotta invent my own stat. 
-Any help is welcomed (any constructive help).  You’ll be credited.
-Think this is stupid?  Just leave. 

Things I could use help with:
-If I actually complete this, I need to write a program where I can run each player’s stats through and then I can get my evaluation without punching in numbers repeatedly.  Any program writers? 
-A way to “average” out OBP and OPS into one percentage
-A way to value SB and HR well

I’ve basically decided on that stats I’ll focus on, ranked in importance.  Comment and tell me what you think.

Hitting:

1. OBP
2. OPS
3. Well Hit Average (pg. 91 of Fantasyland), a “measure of how often a hitter drives the ball hard, even if it becomes an out.)
4. Runs (On Base)
5. HR (Power)
6. SB (Speed)
7. AB (Durability)

Pitching:

1. WHIP
2. Well Hit Average Against
2. K/9
3. BB/9
4. K/BB
5. HR Allowed

My reasoning behind the pitching is what Voros McCracken wrote here.  There are stats that the defense do not affect (K, BB, HR) and stats that they do affect (ERA, Hits Allowed, Wins, Losses).  So if each pitcher has a different defense (essentially), then they should be valued on what the defense doesn’t affect.  WHIP is my favorite stat, so I’m throwing it in there even though it can be affected.

So, I gave this stat a name: HOV (Hitting Objective Value) for hitters and DIPV (Defense Independent Pitching Value).  Yeah, I’m gonna need to work on the names.

Any and all help is appreciated.  I’ll post pictures of what I’ve been working on time to time.  THANKS!

-Sun-Ui

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.